Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the start of the study of the withdrawal schedule of fuel vehicles, the market's enthusiasm for new energy vehicles was once again ignited. Judging from the entire new energy vehicle industry chain, the pattern of “multiple-way progress†between downstream vehicle manufacturers and midstream battery manufacturers has become increasingly apparent, and the upstream industry has more of the meaning of “undercurrentâ€.
Relative to the relatively clear timing of the withdrawal of fuel vehicles in some European countries, the industry's judgment on China's exit cycle has been divergent, ranging from 10 years to 20 years. As for the order of new energy vehicles instead of fuel vehicles, the pre-judgment given by many industry insiders when interviewed by the Securities Times reporters is that it is expected to follow certain categories of private commercial vehicles - rental-type passenger vehicles - private The logic evolution of passenger cars - heavy commercial vehicles. During this period, multiple factors such as technical difficulties, supporting business models, use of used battery cascades, and even China's entire energy structure have become shortcomings, constraints, and priorities.
Who can drink "head soup"
“Although the process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles is rapidly advancing, the order of replacement for each vehicle type will not be the same,†said Liao Zhenbo, vice president of Shenzhen BAK Battery Co., Ltd. in an interview with the Securities Times, stating that logistics vehicles and other special commercial vehicles It is expected to be the first to subdivide the category of fuel vehicles, while long-distance transport of heavy-duty commercial vehicles will be limited by factors such as battery weight, battery efficiency, charging technology, charging facility construction, and driving motors, as well as economic considerations. Electric or come late.
Shenzhen BAK Battery Co., Ltd. is one of the first companies in China to enter the automotive power battery. Liao Zhenbo concluded that this conclusion was based on the fact that, apart from the driving power of local governments to open up road rights and grant subsidies, the market-oriented factors of low distribution costs for pure electric logistics vehicles have also become the most important driving force for the realization of alternative power.
How important is the cost advantage of pure electric logistics vehicles in market competition? From the recent incidents of “expressed prices†that may have been heated up, it may be possible to get side proofs. Taking Yuantong express delivery as an example, the company’s collection and distribution work is mainly undertaken by the franchisees. The person in charge of the franchisor told reporters that whether it is a purchase or a lease, compared with the traditional fuel vehicles, the electric logistics vehicle has strong economics, and the economic advantage of buying is even greater.
According to the relevant personages of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in our country's road transport, the mainline transportation across several provinces is mostly long-haul and bulk cargo logistics vehicles, which require safety, bearing capacity, dynamics, and maintenance convenience. Very high, this market is still dominated by fuel logistics vehicles; while the urban logistics of branch lines, dispatch lines, etc. are mostly short-haul and fixed routes, and are suitable for logistics of small volume, small batch, multi-batch transport and meeting the emission requirements of the urban area. Cars are more suitable and are more suitable for electrification.
Li Ke, chief analyst of Real Lithium Research, further analyzed that the rapid rise of electric vehicles, such as logistics vehicles, is related to the different standards among different types of vehicles. “On the one hand, China's special-purpose vehicle market lacks a unified vehicle evaluation standard, and vehicle requirements are not as strict as passenger vehicles; on the other hand, special-purpose vehicle sales are mainly for B-end users, and after-sales maintenance is relatively simple, so it has a kind of 'impulse' 'Attributes."
In fact, starting in September this year, China's new energy special vehicle market began to show signs of heavy volume. Donghua Securities analyst Zeng Duohong pointed out that in the first three quarters, the cumulative production of special vehicles in China reached 45,000 units. In September, the monthly output exceeded 14,000 units. It is obvious that the annual sales volume will exceed 100,000 units.
However, in the opinion of Moike, the type of vehicle that can truly be called “a large amount of goods†to promote the replacement of new energy vehicles is a commercial bus. “At present, pure electric buses have already accounted for more than 50% of the Chinese bus market. It can be said that this market is even becoming electric.â€
In the process of rapid promotion of this market, the promotion of local governments has played an important role. China's new energy bus market is dominated by the bus market. Public statistics show that from January to August this year, the bus market accounted for 89.8% of new energy bus sales. And Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places have already made clear the timetable for the realization of a comprehensive electrification of public transport.
Although most people in the industry believe that some types of special-purpose vehicles and commercial vehicles are expected to drink fuel-oil vehicles instead of “head soupâ€, overall, the production and consumption of these vehicles account for a small proportion in the Chinese automobile market. As of now, the national encouragement policies, including the "double-integration" policy, are also aimed at the passenger car market.
What is the type of vehicle that is expected to be the first to be replaced in the field of passenger cars? Liao Zhenbo believes that under the guidance of the policy, the subdivision areas of passenger cars such as taxis and some private cars are also expected to gradually enter the alternative process. “Cost and safety are the two most important factors that need to be considered. When the power battery technology develops to a certain extent, and taxis and other one-time acquisition costs and use costs are declining, this alternative trend will be in specific vehicles. Happened in the middle."
According to analysis by Moike, for passenger vehicles in operation, on the one hand, charging and swapping facilities can be installed centrally; on the other hand, they can be operated in specific areas. Through the combination of these measures, a step-by-step development and substitution can be achieved under the premise of ensuring risk control.
“But from the current overall situation, this stage has already started and can even be said to be a past time.†Mo Ke added to the reporter. “What the Chinese government most wishes to do now is to vigorously push forward in the private car market. The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles will ultimately lead to the popularization and replacement of new energy vehicles. Therefore, relevant policies have become more and more targeted for the private car market."
Car companies rush to "golden age"
Apart from the subsidy policy, the promotion of the new energy automobile industry at the policy level is still advancing rapidly. Date: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly publish the “Measures for the Parallel Management of the Average Fuel Consumption of New Passenger Vehicles and New Energy Vehicle Integrationâ€. The new energy points will start in 2019. Assessment.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, believes that the issuance of the “dual-integration†policy is a promotion policy resulting from the fact that some domestic domestic new energy automobile products are not strong and foreign-funded new energy automobile products have not yet entered. This will effectively promote the development of China's new energy automotive industry from big to strong. According to Lin Fan, an analyst at Huatai Securities, the “double-integration†policy is implemented in parallel with the subsidy policy. It will establish a long-term mechanism for new energy vehicles, accelerate the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles, and open the “golden age†of new energy vehicles. .
In addition, only when the battery energy density exceeds 300 watt-hours/kg can consumers truly eliminate “anxiety anxietyâ€; at the same time, economics can only be recognized by the market if the cost is reduced to that of traditional energy vehicles. The next few years will be the “window period†for the accelerated maturation of new energy vehicle technologies and the formation of industrial patterns.
The "golden age" and "window period" have come and the whole automobile industry chain has been shaken. As far as vehicle companies are concerned, entering new energy automobile vehicles has increasingly become a matter of survival and development.
The Great Wall Motor, which has always been regarded as a proud domestic car, seems to be changing since 2017. According to the publicly disclosed figures for the first three quarters, Great Wall Motor’s total sales volume was 705,500 units, which was only 56% of the annual target (1.25 million units); and for the company’s best-selling SUV model Haval H6 in recent years, other independent brands The gap with the Great Wall is rapidly shrinking. In this context, Haval H6 Coupe and other models take the initiative to decline, which was interpreted by the industry as a sign that the brand's premium ability is weak and unable to advance into the high-end market.
A senior automotive analyst pointed out that the energy consumption of SUVs is too high, which runs counter to national industrial policies. With the introduction of the “dual-integration†policy, the transformation of fuel vehicles into electric vehicles is the right way.
In traditional car companies, BMW is the most unwavering company in transition to new energy. In 2016, BMW ranked third in the global sales of electric vehicles, second only to BYD and Tesla. This has also led to the continuous release of the performance of the industry chain companies such as Junsheng Electronics, which provided parts and components, and the stock price has continued to fluctuate.
According to the aforementioned personage, Great Wall Motors has become a rational choice when it chooses to join hands with BMW to become a "great bonder" after it has negligibly neglected its new energy vehicle products.
According to Moco's analysis, Yu Jie and BMW mini are the main players in the mini-car market. This kind of hand-in-hand does not rule out the possibility that the mini series would like to force electric vehicles. “In this way, it is possible to complement Yu Jie products and localize the mini high-end electric vehicles, and through the cooperation with Brilliance and the Great Wall, BMW can also achieve 'diversion' of different product lines.â€
Since China's implementation of the "double-point system" was set in 2019, the time left for car companies has been very urgent - this has become an important reason for domestic and foreign auto companies to hit it off. In fact, it is not only Great Wall Motors, which has been closely watched by the market, but also public companies such as Zotye Automobile Inc., who have entered the field of new energy vehicles through joint ventures and cooperation. In August 2017, Ford took a joint venture with Zotye to establish a new energy vehicle company. The cooperation between the two parties involved brands, technologies, and production management.
Automobile companies that have accumulated in new energy power technology are even more aggressive. On October 19 this year, Changan Automobile launched the “Shangri-La†plan and announced that it would formally stop selling traditional fuel vehicles in 2025 and become the first traditional car company in China to stop the sales of fuel vehicles on the agenda. In addition, the SAIC Group’s annual sales target for new energy vehicles in 2020 exceeded 600,000 units, and BYD’s “7+4†overall market coverage strategy has been seen by the industry as a sign of accelerated progress in the new energy automotive industry.
Car companies with first-mover advantage have stepped up to attack city land, and car companies that have just been opened at the technical level have accelerated their advancement through cooperation. This has led auto manufacturers to advance in the area of ​​new energy vehicles. As far as the key component of the whole industry, the power battery route, is also increasingly characterized by multiple paths: hybrid, pure electric and fuel cell routes are “a hundred schools of thoughtâ€.
Keli is far more typical of the hybrid route. According to company sources, in the fourth quarter of this year, the power battery business is expected to boost the company's nickel foam and steel strip production and sales for the Keqiao, Shonan, and Kelimei battery seasons. At the same time, the mixed operation has officially become a new business for the company. The company is expected to form a hybrid and plug-in hybrid dual-vehicle operation as soon as possible.
Yihuatong was listed on the New Third Board in 2016 and became the first public company in China for the hydrogen sector. At present, not only Yutong, Futian, Zhongtong, and Shenlong have jointly developed hydrogen fuel cell buses, but also developed hydrogen fuel cell logistics vehicles in cooperation with Foton and Dongfeng Special Steam, achieving hydrogenation for 5 to 10 minutes and battery life of 300 to 500. Kilometers. The relevant person in charge also disclosed to the Securities Times reporter that the company's products are currently preparing for the Zhangjiakou Winter Olympics and are expected to become the world's first fuel cell vehicles to serve the Winter Olympics.
However, judging from the current national policy orientation, the "degree of attraction" of each battery route is not the same.
According to Liao Zhenbo, the hybrid route is a better tool when the infrastructure of the pure electric route is not yet fully established. “But China did not include hybrid technology in the category of subsidies for new energy vehicles, including the newly-launched 'double'. The "point system" has excluded the hybrid route and the speed of development of hybrid vehicles has been constrained accordingly."
Yi Huatong person in charge introduced: "From the supply side, China's hydrogen production is rich, and from the policy-oriented point of view, although the lithium battery subsidy has declined in recent years, but the state's subsidy policy for fuel cells will not be in 2020. Graduation will occur."
Many short boards need to be filled
According to public information, many countries in Europe have already voiced their suspicion of banned fuel vehicles. The timetable for the Netherlands and Norway is 2025, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium 2030, Britain and France 2040, Sweden 2050. It is also expected to vigorously develop the new energy automotive industry. Why do European countries have large differences in their timetable?
Mo Ke believes that this is related to the status quo of the auto consumption market in different countries. "The automotive market in Norway and other countries is small, and the proportion of electric vehicles is already relatively high, so it is relatively easy to achieve complete replacement."
Liao Zhenbo pointed out that during this period, there may be an involvement in the layout of the traditional energy automobile industry. "The automotive industry in Norway and other countries is not well-developed and does not entirely hope to use the new energy vehicle industry to realize 'curve-tracking', but rather emphasizes environmental protection factors, so it appears to be relatively aggressive. In contrast, countries such as Germany, as a global traditional car Leaders, economic development are more dependent on auto giants, and there have been many investments in investment, R&D, etc., and their conversion costs are relatively high. Therefore, it is somewhat slow to advance the withdrawal of fuel vehicles.â€
Then, when will China's current fuel vehicle withdrawal schedule be positioned? According to Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Centennial Association, by 2025 at the latest, the price/performance ratio of electric vehicles is expected to reach or exceed that of conventional fuel vehicles. "This alternative process may not be as fast as a smartphone replacing a feature phone, but it will be similar to a digital camera replacing a color film for about a decade or so."
However, Mo Ke believes that the fuel vehicle will withdraw or wait until after 2040. “This is because China's auto market is very large. On the other hand, it is closely related to related technologies and the construction of charging and exchanging facilities.â€
China’s auto consumption is the largest market in the world. Although the sales of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly, the proportion is very small. From the perspective of sales of 500,000 new energy vehicles in 2016, the proportion in the automotive consumer market of more than 28 million vehicles is still less than 2%. "If you want to reach a 100% ratio of new energy vehicles, you can't do it overnight," said Mo Ke.
And the formulation of the timetable, but also a comprehensive consideration of the entire industry chain, a lot of "short-board" factors. In fact, with the rapid development of the new energy automotive industry, the issue of co-ordination between upstream and downstream industries has become increasingly prominent.
The upstream resources of power batteries are some of the most worrying aspects of the industry. Taking lithium-ion batteries as an example, manganese-cobalt-lithium ternary is considered to be the best combination at present, but some of China's reserves of basic resources are very scarce. Taking cobalt as an example, some assessments show that China’s cobalt reserves are only about 80,000 tons, and its share of global cobalt reserves is only 1.11%.
However, according to Moko, with the rapid development of the new energy automotive industry, the upstream supporting construction has been quietly advancing. Luoyang Molybdenum Industry Co., Ltd. has increased the storage of cobalt ore as an important aspect in the process of creating global mining leaders through overseas mergers and acquisitions in recent years. According to estimates by Great Wall Securities, the company has even established its position as the world's first cobalt producer.
"This actually reflects the systematic thinking and overall strategy of China's development of new energy automotive industry." Mo Ke believes that in the upstream resources reserves, China's capital will play an increasingly important force.
The technical preparations and industrial development of waste battery recycling and cascade utilization in the downstream have also been lagging behind. A senior person, who did not wish to be named, revealed to reporters that due to Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BYD, and other car companies and battery companies, the development and production of new energy-powered batteries was earlier, and some batteries have gradually entered the retirement period. However, due to the limitations of vision and technology at the time, there were problems such as the inability of battery packs to be disassembled for the recycling of these used batteries, which not only significantly increased the storage costs of related companies, but also had a large potential safety hazard.
A related person from BYD's Investor Relations Department told the Securities Times reporter that from the perspective of the company's current status, the battery cascade utilization market is currently under consideration, but the company’s priority is to recycle BYD-produced power batteries. Currently, batteries that cannot be used for a time are commissioned. Other companies dismantled.
Meike believes that recovery and use of cascades should be considered together. "The best way is to dismantle the battery module after the vehicle's power battery pack is scrapped. The available modules are used in the energy storage market. If it cannot be used, it will continue to dismantle the batteries and then recover the resources."
In addition to battery recycling and cascade utilization problems, the “stumbling block†problem of downstream charging piles is more commonplace. According to the latest statistics, as of the end of August, although the number of public charging piles and private charging piles in China has reached 180,000, the ratio of 1:1 from electric vehicles and charging facilities is still far away.
The most important issue during this period is that the charging pile industry has not yet established an effective and reasonable business model. According to Moco's analysis, the National Grid has taken the case of an example. Although national policies require that it cooperate with new energy vehicle users in refitting the charging piles, voltages are often required to change during these periods. Under high costs and low returns, the relevant parties’ motivation is obviously insufficient. "Only when the business model is clear and profitable points can be found at all links can we get rid of the government's strong push model and social capital will invest more."
Between charging piles and lithium-battery vehicles, hydrogen refueling stations and fuel-cell vehicles, it is actually a question of “chicken or eggs firstâ€. In the difficult situation, some companies began to try other workarounds. Yihuatong and Foton Motor have jointly promoted the commercial vehicle model and established a network of hydrogen refueling stations, one after the other, while at the same time increasing the fuel cell capacity.
Mo Ke stressed that with the expansion of the market size of the new energy automobile industry, the profitability of charging piles is becoming increasingly easy to find. “Our country adopts a strategy of making large plates first. By 2020, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 2 million. By that time, the problems that currently appear to be problematic may no longer be a problem. Once they are new, The scale effect of energy vehicles will reduce the associated costs."
The shortcomings of the new energy automotive industry are not entirely confined to the industry chain itself, and even involve the energy structure of China. Since China is still dominated by coal-fired power, it has been inferred that electric vehicles may not reduce carbon emissions. Although electric vehicles do not emit polluting gases in cities, they are discharged through thermal power plants in another way.
Liao Zhenbo analyzed that the current coal conversion rate in China is lower than 40%. Compared with fuel engines, the efficiency of the power grid, the efficiency of battery charging and discharging itself, and the efficiency of charging piles also need to be improved. "In recent years, upstream power generating desulfurization and denitrification efforts have become more powerful. Small power generating units have become large units, and pollution sources have started to decline. We are more expectant that a series of problems including the charging pile itself's conversion efficiency and resource elements will also need to be solved. Do something in tandem to quickly adapt to the timetable."
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