At the "2015 Global Auto Forum" held in Chongqing, Xu Heyi, the chairman of Beiqi Group, who was shocked by the four-language speech, was not "disappointing" this time. Xu Heyi had two arguments on the forum that sparked the discussion among the participants: First, it mentioned that BAIC is not as good as the car company's big brother in terms of strength, talents and technology, but the new energy vehicle gave Beiqi a chance to surpass and believed in independent new energy in 2020. The annual sales volume of automobiles exceeded 1 million units, and reached 3 million units in 2025. Second, it is asserted that at least 20% of China's auto companies will be out of 2020, and some will be naturally eliminated. Mergers and acquisitions will be followed by a new round of mergers and acquisitions among domestic enterprises. accelerate.
Two years after the launch of the "Industry 4.0" strategy in Germany, the Chinese version of Industry 4.0 - "Made in China 2025" was also disclosed recently. "Made in China 2025" proposes that by 2020, the annual sales volume of self-owned brand pure electric and plug-in new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million, accounting for more than 70% in the domestic market; by 2025, the new energy vehicle year will be synchronized with the international advanced level. The sales volume is 3 million units, accounting for more than 80% of the domestic market.
The industry generally suspects that such grand data will be as mentioned in the 2009 Automotive Industry Revitalization Plan. "In 2011, 500,000 pure electric, plug-in hybrid and common hybrid new energy vehicles will be formed. New energy vehicles. Sales volume accounts for about 5% of the total sales of passenger cars.
It is also mentioned in this "Automotive Industry Revitalization Plan" that through mergers and acquisitions, two or three large-scale enterprise groups with a production and sales scale of more than 2 million vehicles will be formed, and four to five automobile companies with a production and sales scale of more than 1 million vehicles will be cultivated. In the Group, the number of automobile enterprise groups with a production and sales volume accounting for more than 90% of the market share has been reduced from the current 14 to less than 10.
The "Securities Daily" reporter learned that the reality is that the reorganization of state-owned enterprises and the reorganization between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises have finally come to a calm after encountering numerous obstacles. The characteristics of China's auto industry are small, weak and scattered.
At least 20% of car companies will be eliminated by 2020. Xu Heyi mentioned at the Global Automobile Forum that by 2020, the ranking of car companies will change greatly. At present, the FAW falls to the fourth place. The change in one step will be even bigger.
Inquiring about the sales ranking of the automobile group in 2014, the “four big kings†of state-owned car companies are the same as in 2013. FAW Group once again indulged, and “the eldest son of the Republic†is in the third place. After the end of the year, the status of the third child is not guaranteed. Starting from January this year, Changan Automobile Group’s sales surpassed FAW Group and became the third, and FAW Group became the fourth. In February, Changan Automobile Group continued to expand and consolidate. This leading edge.
From the boss to the fourth, FAW Group's slippage was less than ten years. However, according to the estimation of the brokerage institution, the profit of the unlisted assets of FAW Group is about 30 billion yuan, far exceeding the listed FAW Car and FAW Xiali. It is expected that the market value of FAW Group will reach 300 billion after its overall listing. yuan.
Not only the scale of profit, FAW Group is no worse than the other three car companies in terms of talent reserve and technical reserves. This point, Xu Heyi is also admitted that "BAIC is not as good as the car company's big brother in strength, talent and technology." Even so, when FAW and Dongfeng heads changed their coaches one after another, the capital market once heard that the central government had the news of integrating two car companies.
It is understood that since the State Council passed the "Automotive Industry Revitalization Plan" in 2009, the reorganization of automobile companies has also been carried out vigorously. Changan has reorganized Changhe and Hafei, Guangzhou Automobile has reorganized Changfeng, Dongfeng has reorganized Fuqi, and Guangzhou Automobile has reorganized Gio. But these reorganization events are also full of twists and turns, and it is hard to say success.
Zhao Ying, director of the Industrial Development Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the current merger and reorganization of the "Langlang match" is no longer applicable. The merger of FAW and Dongfeng is not feasible at this stage, and the integration is also very difficult.
However, Xu Heyi asserted that at least 20% of China's auto companies will be out of the game in 2020, and some will naturally eliminate some mergers and acquisitions. Then a new round of mergers and acquisitions between domestic enterprises will definitely accelerate. "If you are radical, you may be able to reach 1 /3. What kind of car companies will be out? The macro point is that companies with slow technological progress and poor innovation capabilities will definitely be out."
Zhao Ying also believes that the auto industry will usher in the climax of mergers and acquisitions in the next decade. "From the perspective of the world automobile industry, the industrial concentration of the Chinese automotive industry is still far from reasonable."
"In the world, the concentration of industrial enterprises in other developed countries is relatively high. For example, there are only two or three American auto companies, five to six in Japan, and two in South Korea. Compared with the Chinese auto market, the domestic auto market can It can accommodate ten or so car companies to survive, but now there are dozens of domestic vehicle manufacturers, so the real car restructuring and merger has not yet arrived, Zhao Ying told reporters.
The "Securities Daily" reporter noted that the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the automobile industry in China also showed small, weak and scattered characteristics. According to statistics, there are more than 1,300 various types of vehicle manufacturers in China, including 171 automobile manufacturers, 120 motorcycles, more than 900 special vehicles, and 135 three-wheeled vehicles and low-speed trucks. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology believes that among the more than 1,000 enterprises, a number of enterprises have been in production or semi-discontinued for many years, with little or no output, and it is very difficult to survive.
In 2025, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles of 3 million vehicles is still "satellite"?
But can China's auto industry become bigger and stronger by mergers and acquisitions alone, and compete with multinational auto companies? Obviously, the gap between Chinese local enterprises and foreign companies in traditional energy vehicles is still very large. In recent years, the Chinese government's policy has been supporting and developing new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles can reduce China's dependence on energy and reduce carbon emissions, and it is an opportunity for Chinese companies to improve their development capabilities and produce competitive products.
"Compared with several big brothers in the industry, there are shortcomings in our strength, talents and technology. But new energy is coming, this is the opportunity of BAIC." Xu Heyi confidently said that BAIC is fully promoting strategic transformation. With the information service industry as a breakthrough, the transition from manufacturers to “manufacturing travel†solutions will be realized. Taking the reform of the R&D system as a breakthrough, we will realize the transformation from a traditional automobile company driven by general factors to an innovative enterprise driven by resources.
On May 8, the State Council issued "Made in China 2025" and put forward the "three-step" strategy of building China's manufacturing powerhouse for three decades. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology disclosed the 10-year strategic goal of the development of energy-saving and new-energy automotive industry in China Manufacturing 2025.
By 2020, the annual sales volume of self-owned brand pure electric and plug-in new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million units, accounting for more than 70% in the domestic market; by 2025, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles synchronized with the international advanced level will be 3 million units. The domestic market accounts for more than 80%; by 2020, the star model will be built into the top 10 in global sales; by 2025, the sales of two vehicle companies will enter the top 10 in the world. Overseas sales accounted for 10% of total sales.
In this regard, Xu Heyi is convinced that "the spring of China's new energy vehicles is close at hand, and the two goals put forward by "Made in China 2025" are more than enough."
Unlike Xu Heyi’s optimistic attitude, many participants expressed the opposite view. Dr.V.Sumantran, Chairman of CelerisTechnologies, said: "Even if you consider whether the electric car can reach our 50% penetration rate in the next five years, there are many problems, such as the technology of storage, including quality. technology".
Chen Yudong, president of Bosch (China) Investment Co., Ltd., euphemistically mentioned that yesterday's G3 meeting predicted to stop using fossil fuels at the end of the century. In the 2025 plan of the Chinese state, the annual output will reach 3 million in 2025. The supplier walks on the active two legs. The traditional engine has a lot of room for improvement. In the future, we will continue to dig deep into the traditional power components to save energy and reduce emissions. At the same time, we are actively investing in new energy vehicles. We provide many domestic OEMs. Two-way technical support."
Looking at the sales of new energy vehicles in 2014, the cumulative sales of Guochun electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles totaled 74,763 units, more than three times that of 2013, but about 2.5% of the target production in 2025.
In the first five months of 2015, China's new energy vehicles produced a total of 53,600 vehicles, a three-fold increase over the same period last year. According to the national automobile industry's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the total production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 500,000 by 2015. "53,600 vehicles" is a far cry from "500,000 vehicles."
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