As Hurricane Rita intensifies while approaching the U.S., it poses a growing threat to crude oil production and refining operations, particularly in Texas, an oil-intensive region. This has led to a sharp rise in New York crude oil futures, hitting $67 per barrel—up 6.6% from the previous week. Technically, the price has confirmed the key support level at $63, opening up new upside potential. Meanwhile, Singapore fuel oil remains highly volatile, with prices roughly flat compared to last week. Domestic import costs for fuel oil are still around 3,400 yuan per ton.
Driven by rising crude prices, Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures hit a new all-time high, with December contracts reaching 3,226 yuan per ton—an increase of 2.8% from the prior week. The current price spread continues to be a major driver of the upward trend. As the main contract approaches its delivery deadline, prices are expected to gradually align with spot levels.
International crude oil prices remain the central factor influencing the market. Increased volatility suggests more aggressive trading between long and short positions. The hurricane’s focus on Texas raises concerns about potential supply disruptions, which could quickly translate into higher oil prices.
Amid global pressure, OPEC announced it will eliminate the current 28 million barrel production quota and use spare capacity to meet demand over the next three months, with new supplies expected to enter the market in October. However, this move appears more symbolic than practical, as OPEC has already been reducing output. According to OPEC’s supply-demand balance sheet, second-quarter production exceeded demand by 2.62 million barrels per day, and the third quarter is expected to see similar oversupply. Despite this, Wall Street remains skeptical of OPEC's figures.
The real concern now lies in global demand. Hurricane Katrina has reduced the U.S. GDP growth forecast by 0.2%, bringing it down to 3.4%. In its latest September report, the International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecast by 250,000 barrels per day, now estimating 1.35 million barrels per day. However, until there is a clear slowdown in global economic growth, the impact on oil prices remains limited.
With the National Day holiday approaching, markets typically see increased volatility ahead of the break. Given the current high oil prices, domestic importers are hesitant to purchase additional cargoes to avoid risks during the holiday period. Short-term supply may tighten further, and Huangpu stock levels have already fallen below safety thresholds. This supports the outlook for continued strength in fuel oil prices, with futures still holding significant upside potential.
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