Affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices, since May, the confidence in the ethylene glycol spot market has been severely hampered. Trading has been cautious and the market has been weakening. At present, the mainstream quoted price in the East China market is between 7300 and 7350 yuan (t price, the same below), the mainstream quoted price in South China is between 7600 and 7700 yuan, the mainstream quoted price in North China is between 7700 and 7750 yuan, and in the Northeast China is between 7560 and 7560 yuan. Multiple sets of ethylene glycol units at home and abroad have been completed and overhauled. Production capacity will be released at the end of May and June, which will exacerbate the excess market situation. There is no hope for ethylene glycol to rebound in the short term.
Due to the drop in international oil prices, the spot price of ethylene in Asia continued to decline for five consecutive weeks, leading to deterioration of downstream chemical products such as ethylene glycol. At present, the spot price of ethylene in Northeast Asia fell to 1,070 US dollars, reaching the lowest level since January this year. Affected by the drop in ethylene prices, Asian ethylene glycol prices have continued to fall, from US$ 1,013 on May 4 to US$ 968 today.
Affected by the continued decline in crude oil and other negative factors, the domestic ethylene glycol market conditions continued to slump, prices continued to decline slightly, the market was filled with pessimistic atmosphere; buying intentions are low, and negotiations are deadlocked. Statistics from the Business Club show that from May 8 to the end of May, ethylene glycol entered a stage of weaker decline, with an overall decrease of about 3.5%. On May 22, May 24 and May 28, Sinopec Huadong Sales Co., Sinopec Huanan Sales Co., Ltd., Fushun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. lowered the ex-factory price of ethylene glycol by 100-200 yuan.
The domestic ethylene glycol plant maintains a high load production trend. Although no new ethylene glycol plant has been put into operation in China since the second half of last year, domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises have adopted expansion and optimized operations under the circumstances that the overall domestic chemical market is still stagnant and the ethylene glycol market is profitable. And other measures to maintain the high load production of glycol devices. According to industry sources, in addition to the aging of ethylene glycol due to the aging of the catalyst, the device load was kept at 85%, and other on-line glycol devices maintained a high or even overloaded state, among which the ethylene glycol devices of Zhenhai Refinery and Maoming Petrochemical etc. Even more than 110% of the load.
Multiple sets of ethylene glycol units at home and abroad were completed and overhauled, and production capacity was released at the end of May and June. On the foreign front, the annual production capacity of 170,000 tons of ethylene glycol plant in India was restarted on May 6th after shutdown and maintenance on April 20. The Malaysian oil company's annual production capacity of 365,000 tons of ethylene glycol plant was overhauled on May 24th. Restart. In addition, South Korea's Samsung annual output of 120,000 tons, Japan's Mitsui annual output of 115,000 tons, Mitsubishi annual output of 280,000 tons, Dow Chemical's three sets of annual production of 1.1 million tons of ethylene glycol unit will also restart in June.
On the domestic front, Yangzi-BASF's 300,000-ton-per-year ethylene glycol plant restarted on May 2 after being shut down and repaired on April 16. Shanghai Petrochemical's annual production capacity of 380,000 tons of ethylene glycol plant was stopped and overhauled, and on May 16th. On a daily restart, Fushun Petrochemical's annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of ethylene glycol equipment has been restarted after 20 days of parking and maintenance on May 9. At present, only Jilin Petrochemical's annual production capacity of 160,000 tons of ethylene glycol equipment was shut down on May 29 for a one-month maintenance period, and other ethylene glycol units remained in operation.
At the same time, port stocks continued to rise. At the end of January, the stock of ports rose to about 750,000 tons; due to the surge in imports, the stock of ports at the end of May reached about 860,000 tons. Industry sources pointed out that the anticipated launch of multiple new polyester units will be postponed this year; while ethylene glycol products from Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran will continue to flow into the market; at the same time, the demand for downstream polyester industry has not been obvious since April. Improved. A series of factors led to a higher inventory of ports.
Domestic glycol products are mainly used for the production of polyester and automotive antifreeze products, of which about 90% are used to produce polyester. Since the beginning of this year, in the context of the continuous fermentation of the European debt crisis, the demand for Ukraine, Russia, and other countries and regions that account for 50% of China's total exports of PET bottles has shrunk, making it difficult for China's exports of PET bottles. At the same time, the volume of Chinese textile exports has also slowed down significantly this year. At present, due to the fact that the sales of spring and summer fabrics are nearing the end, there are very few orders for weaving companies and the operating rate is insufficient. The confidence in the entire polyester market has declined. In particular, since the end of April, polyester filament stocks have been high, market transactions have remained light, and transactions have been lacking, leading to no improvement in the shipment status of ethylene glycol manufacturers.
According to industry sources, since May, the production and sales rate of downstream polyester manufacturers has been between 70% and 90%, and under normal circumstances, the production and sales ratio is above 95%. Meanwhile, the inventory of manufacturers is 13 to 27 days. At present, polyester companies mainly focus on cashing out shipments. There is a lack of market confidence and the overall operating rate of the equipment is about 75%, especially in the polyester staple fiber industry.
According to industry analysts, the external risks still exist and are affected by the downturn in the textile industry, apparel industry, and polyester chip industry. It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the market for ethylene glycol in the future market.
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