The industry trend in 2011 is similar to that of 2008. In 2011, the net profit growth rate of the machinery industry fell downwards through the revenue growth rate, the macro economy declined, the demand was weak, and the raw material prices and CPI declined, similar to the trend in 2008. It is expected that the domestic macroeconomic environment in the first half of 2012 will be similar to the trend from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009: GDP, CPI, and steel price index will both decline.
In 2012, the growth rate of the industry's net profit is expected to fall to 5-15%. On the one hand, the growth of investment in commercial housing, high-speed railways, etc. will decline; on the other hand, factors such as the change of government and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will boost the investment in affordable housing, water conservancy projects, environmental protection, and other livelihood projects. It is expected that urban fixed assets will be maintained in 2012. The growth rate of investment will drop slightly to about 20%, and the growth rate of net profit of machinery industry will drop to 5-15%.
The construction machinery industry needs to wait for the second half of next year to pick up. The business climate is still in a downturn in the short-term and is expected to rebound in the second half of next year. The construction machinery industry is still difficult to outperform the broader market in the short term. Medium and long-term investors can start to pay attention to the leading industry companies with valuations that are near historical lows: Sany Heavy Industry.
The energy equipment industry as a whole maintains a high degree of economic growth, and the medium and long-term development prospects are promising. (1) The coal machinery industry will maintain a stable growth rate of around 20% during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, and it will focus on companies that have successfully transformed to full-scale mining and high-end technologies: Tiandi Technology and Zhengji Coal Machinery. (2) Coal chemical and natural gas industries will usher in a period of rapid development. Concerned about coal chemical equipment related companies: Hangzhou oxygen shares, Shaanxi drum power, natural gas industry chain Related companies: Furui special equipment.
Railway equipment and nuclear power equipment are concerned about the relevant national policy signals next year. Short-term suspension of EMU tenders, tenders for trucks and subway vehicles are still in the rising period; next year, attention is paid to railway investment planning and EMU tendering. The nuclear power project is expected to restart at the beginning of next year and will benefit companies such as heavy machinery and related equipment.
Industry investment strategy: Short-term focus on the growth of certain segments of the industry, long-term optimistic about the high-end equipment manufacturing industry. It is difficult for the industry to have systemic opportunities in the short-term, focusing on industries and individual stocks whose growth has been determined. From an industry perspective: Focus on coal machinery, oil and gas equipment, printing equipment, agricultural machinery and other industries with a high degree of prosperity, the medium and long-term development prospects of energy equipment are promising.
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