A few days ago, excavator sales data was officially announced in December 2011. From a year-round perspective, the total sales amounted to 178,352 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Although the sales volume has steadily increased, it has shown a trend of “high before and after low†during the year. In particular, due to the impact of the economic environment in the second half of 2011, the sales data of excavators has fallen sharply, and the industry’s economic outlook is not optimistic in the near future.
There is no hope of a recovery at the beginning of the year. In the past year, the scale of investment in railways, real estate and other industries has shrunk dramatically. This has directly led to a significant reduction in the demand for products in the construction machinery industry. In all construction machinery products, the excavator usually publishes earlier products with monthly statistics, and its data changes also reflect the cooling and heating of the entire industry. In December, the total sales volume of the excavator industry decreased by 38.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points from November. In 2011, the annual sales of the excavator industry increased by approximately 6% year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations. From the perspective of enterprises, except for Caterpillar, foreign brands generally declined by more than 50% year-on-year, and most domestic brands decreased year-on-year. The trend is declining; from the monthly trend, the excavator industry demand is still at the bottom, there is no obvious signs of recovery.
Through the analysis of the data since 2008, the author learned that due to the characteristics of market demand, the sales of excavators have obvious seasonality: usually the annual sales data is the peak of the year in March, and in July and August it enters the low season of sales. . However, in 2011, the excavator market experienced a very unusual phenomenon: the “higher and lower†seasonal features became even more prominent. In March, sales data reached 44.15 million units, setting a new monthly high for the calendar year, quite a blowout. mean. However, after the trough in July and August, the sales of excavators did not improve at all. In December, the sales volume of 8495 units created a new low for single-month data in the past two years, which was equivalent to only one-fifth of the data in March. This shows that with the continuation of the unfavorable economic environment, the real economic impact caused by the deceleration of investment is gradually intensifying and the demand for products is rapidly declining.
What is gratifying is that with the ever-increasing competition in the market, the proportion of excavator sales of domestic listed companies has continued to rise, and the market share of foreign manufacturers has been eroded under the import substitution model. Sany Heavy Industry sold 201,613,000 excavators in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, and secured the top spot in domestic excavator sales; Liugong sold 7438 excavators, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year; Xiagong was selling excavators 4253 Taiwan, a year-on-year growth of 48.4%. According to a research report issued on January 10th by Anxin Securities, in 2011, the domestic brand market share reached 40.4%, a significant increase of 10.6 percentage points over 2010; foreign brands decreased from 70.1% in 2010 to 59.6%. According to the Orient Securities Research Report, since the beginning of 2011, the proportion of foreign brands has obviously declined: In December, the proportion of foreign investment dropped significantly, while the market share of Sany Heavy Industry reached a staggering 19.20% in one month, highlighting the strength of Chinese excavators. Import substitution momentum.
The export growth is worthy of expecting the continuation of the real estate control policy. In addition, with the monetary tightening, it is difficult to significantly improve the scale of domestic investment, which casts a shadow over the prospects of the excavator market in 2012. Some research institutions predict that based on the growth rate of 6.9% in 2011, this year's sales may experience stagnation or negative growth year-on-year.
The CICC report pointed out that the demand for the excavator industry is still at the bottom and there is no obvious sign of recovery. In the short term, the possibility of a significant year-on-year increase in the sales volume of excavators will not be significant, but positive growth is expected to occur in the middle of this year.
In the absence of domestic demand, overseas markets are expected to become key areas for construction machinery companies. Everbright Securities researcher said that after strengthening import substitution, excavator exports may also grow rapidly. In 2011, the cumulative export of excavators reached 4,574 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9%. Although exports accounted for 6.2% of total sales for the year and are still only "supportive", they have increased by 2.9 percentage points compared to 2010.
China's construction machinery industry is gradually opening up the international market through cost-effectiveness. The level of manufacturing, technology and R&D is close to the international giants. With the continuous improvement of soft power, combined with the successive deployment of SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion overseas deployment, this year is expected to usher in New starting point for export growth of construction machinery products.
In the second or third quarter, it is known that Komatsu has become the vane indicator of domestic excavator enterprises' judgment of policy orientation. It had previously voluntarily reduced production in the industry after April 2011. Therefore, excavator companies generally believe that the company's judgment of the industry and policy has a better forward-looking. However, the excavator company discovered that the company began mass production after the New Year's Day in 2012, and domestic manufacturers began to follow suit: Hyundai (Jiangsu)’s production plan for January 2012 has risen substantially, and is likely to double; Sany Heavy Industry also After the New Year's Day, heavy production will be stocked; Liugong is expected to produce at full capacity after the Spring Festival.
As a result, industry insiders expect that sales in early 2012 may be better than originally expected, and will continue to fall from the previous quarter to be flat and increase. In addition, the sales volume of small digging in 2011 was significantly better than that of medium digging. Due to the decline in the base number of digging last year, it is expected that the sales growth rate of small digging and middle digging will be relatively balanced in 2012.
According to China International Capital Corporation, the company’s recent survey of some construction machinery dealers revealed that by the end of December last year, inventory of excavator dealers was basically at an annual low, and dealers’ inventory of domestic companies was about half a month to one. During the month, foreign-funded dealers cleaned their inventory mainly in December last year, and their inventory was only about half a month. The performance was reflected in the decline in sales of manufacturers (except Sany’s heavy chain) in December last year, and was basically lower than last year's 11 month. Therefore, CICC believes that the current inventory of dealers and companies is relatively insufficient. Once the demand picks up, dealers' restocking is expected to drive the company's sales situation for at least 1 to 2 months. More people in the industry believe that there is little possibility that the year-on-year growth of sales volume will improve significantly in the short term, and positive growth is expected to occur at the end of the second quarter of this year and the beginning of the third quarter.
There is no hope of a recovery at the beginning of the year. In the past year, the scale of investment in railways, real estate and other industries has shrunk dramatically. This has directly led to a significant reduction in the demand for products in the construction machinery industry. In all construction machinery products, the excavator usually publishes earlier products with monthly statistics, and its data changes also reflect the cooling and heating of the entire industry. In December, the total sales volume of the excavator industry decreased by 38.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points from November. In 2011, the annual sales of the excavator industry increased by approximately 6% year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations. From the perspective of enterprises, except for Caterpillar, foreign brands generally declined by more than 50% year-on-year, and most domestic brands decreased year-on-year. The trend is declining; from the monthly trend, the excavator industry demand is still at the bottom, there is no obvious signs of recovery.
Through the analysis of the data since 2008, the author learned that due to the characteristics of market demand, the sales of excavators have obvious seasonality: usually the annual sales data is the peak of the year in March, and in July and August it enters the low season of sales. . However, in 2011, the excavator market experienced a very unusual phenomenon: the “higher and lower†seasonal features became even more prominent. In March, sales data reached 44.15 million units, setting a new monthly high for the calendar year, quite a blowout. mean. However, after the trough in July and August, the sales of excavators did not improve at all. In December, the sales volume of 8495 units created a new low for single-month data in the past two years, which was equivalent to only one-fifth of the data in March. This shows that with the continuation of the unfavorable economic environment, the real economic impact caused by the deceleration of investment is gradually intensifying and the demand for products is rapidly declining.
What is gratifying is that with the ever-increasing competition in the market, the proportion of excavator sales of domestic listed companies has continued to rise, and the market share of foreign manufacturers has been eroded under the import substitution model. Sany Heavy Industry sold 201,613,000 excavators in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, and secured the top spot in domestic excavator sales; Liugong sold 7438 excavators, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year; Xiagong was selling excavators 4253 Taiwan, a year-on-year growth of 48.4%. According to a research report issued on January 10th by Anxin Securities, in 2011, the domestic brand market share reached 40.4%, a significant increase of 10.6 percentage points over 2010; foreign brands decreased from 70.1% in 2010 to 59.6%. According to the Orient Securities Research Report, since the beginning of 2011, the proportion of foreign brands has obviously declined: In December, the proportion of foreign investment dropped significantly, while the market share of Sany Heavy Industry reached a staggering 19.20% in one month, highlighting the strength of Chinese excavators. Import substitution momentum.
The export growth is worthy of expecting the continuation of the real estate control policy. In addition, with the monetary tightening, it is difficult to significantly improve the scale of domestic investment, which casts a shadow over the prospects of the excavator market in 2012. Some research institutions predict that based on the growth rate of 6.9% in 2011, this year's sales may experience stagnation or negative growth year-on-year.
The CICC report pointed out that the demand for the excavator industry is still at the bottom and there is no obvious sign of recovery. In the short term, the possibility of a significant year-on-year increase in the sales volume of excavators will not be significant, but positive growth is expected to occur in the middle of this year.
In the absence of domestic demand, overseas markets are expected to become key areas for construction machinery companies. Everbright Securities researcher said that after strengthening import substitution, excavator exports may also grow rapidly. In 2011, the cumulative export of excavators reached 4,574 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9%. Although exports accounted for 6.2% of total sales for the year and are still only "supportive", they have increased by 2.9 percentage points compared to 2010.
China's construction machinery industry is gradually opening up the international market through cost-effectiveness. The level of manufacturing, technology and R&D is close to the international giants. With the continuous improvement of soft power, combined with the successive deployment of SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion overseas deployment, this year is expected to usher in New starting point for export growth of construction machinery products.
In the second or third quarter, it is known that Komatsu has become the vane indicator of domestic excavator enterprises' judgment of policy orientation. It had previously voluntarily reduced production in the industry after April 2011. Therefore, excavator companies generally believe that the company's judgment of the industry and policy has a better forward-looking. However, the excavator company discovered that the company began mass production after the New Year's Day in 2012, and domestic manufacturers began to follow suit: Hyundai (Jiangsu)’s production plan for January 2012 has risen substantially, and is likely to double; Sany Heavy Industry also After the New Year's Day, heavy production will be stocked; Liugong is expected to produce at full capacity after the Spring Festival.
As a result, industry insiders expect that sales in early 2012 may be better than originally expected, and will continue to fall from the previous quarter to be flat and increase. In addition, the sales volume of small digging in 2011 was significantly better than that of medium digging. Due to the decline in the base number of digging last year, it is expected that the sales growth rate of small digging and middle digging will be relatively balanced in 2012.
According to China International Capital Corporation, the company’s recent survey of some construction machinery dealers revealed that by the end of December last year, inventory of excavator dealers was basically at an annual low, and dealers’ inventory of domestic companies was about half a month to one. During the month, foreign-funded dealers cleaned their inventory mainly in December last year, and their inventory was only about half a month. The performance was reflected in the decline in sales of manufacturers (except Sany’s heavy chain) in December last year, and was basically lower than last year's 11 month. Therefore, CICC believes that the current inventory of dealers and companies is relatively insufficient. Once the demand picks up, dealers' restocking is expected to drive the company's sales situation for at least 1 to 2 months. More people in the industry believe that there is little possibility that the year-on-year growth of sales volume will improve significantly in the short term, and positive growth is expected to occur at the end of the second quarter of this year and the beginning of the third quarter.
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