October 19, 2025

Analysis of the development prospects of domestic internal combustion engine industry optimistic about diesel

The gas turbine industry has experienced an average annual compound growth rate of 13.5% over the past decade, outpacing the overall GDP growth during the same period. Meanwhile, automotive internal combustion engines represent 15.2% of the total internal combustion engine market but account for a staggering 75% of power consumption, making them the most significant segment within the industry. Currently, most vehicle internal combustion engines are sold domestically. According to 2008 data, only 430,000 units were exported, representing just a 5% share of total production. Over the past ten years, as domestic automobile engine technology has advanced, the self-sufficiency rate of engine supply in China has remained above 90%. Only high-end engines used in luxury models from joint-venture manufacturers are imported. After years of rapid development, China's auto industry has surged to second place globally in total sales, trailing only the United States. We believe the Chinese auto sector is still in its early stages, with strong domestic demand expected to grow steadily for many years. Combined with the growing influence of the export market, we anticipate that total vehicle sales—domestic and international—will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 15–20% over the next decade. As a result, the annual growth rate of automotive internal combustion engines should closely match that of the auto industry, staying around 15–20%. Looking at the domestic automobile internal combustion engine industry chain, independent diesel engine companies hold a relatively large market share of 57.4%, with Yuchai holding a commanding 23.0% share. In contrast, independent gasoline engine companies have a much smaller presence, accounting for only 13.8% of the market, with Dongan Power and its affiliates holding 8.7%. Both the diesel and gasoline engine sectors in China show signs of monopolistic competition among independent engine manufacturers. Globally, there are very few independent gasoline engine companies, as most major passenger vehicle manufacturers operate their own engine divisions. This is largely due to the economies of scale enjoyed by international automakers, which allows them to integrate new vehicle development more efficiently and improve profit margins. In China, however, many small-scale vehicle manufacturers rely on outsourcing for larger engine R&D and production. As a result, independent gasoline engine companies still have room to operate. However, we expect this situation to change in the future, with the market share of independent engine companies in the gasoline engine sector likely to decline gradually.

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