October 19, 2025

Analysis of the development prospects of domestic internal combustion engine industry optimistic about diesel

The gas turbine industry has experienced an average annual compound growth rate of 13.5% over the past decade, outpacing the GDP growth rate during the same period. Meanwhile, automotive internal combustion engines represent 15.2% of the overall internal combustion engine industry, yet they account for a staggering 75% of total power consumption, making them the most critical segment within the industry. Currently, vehicle internal combustion engines are predominantly sold domestically. According to data from 2008, only 430,000 units were exported, representing just 5% of total production. Over the past ten years, as domestic automobile engine technology has advanced, local auto production has consistently maintained a high self-sufficiency ratio of over 90%. Only high-end imported engines are used in premium models produced by joint ventures. After years of rapid growth, China's automotive industry has climbed to second place globally in total sales, trailing only the United States. We believe the Chinese auto industry is still in its early stages, and domestic demand is expected to grow steadily for many years to come. When considering the influence of the export market, total vehicle sales—both domestic and international—are projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 15-20% over the next decade. As a result, the annual growth rate of automotive internal combustion engines should closely mirror that of the auto industry, remaining within the same 15%-20% range. Looking at the domestic automobile internal combustion engine supply chain, independent diesel engine manufacturers hold a significant market share of 57.4%, with Yuchai holding a leading 23.0% share. In contrast, independent gasoline engine companies have a much smaller market presence, at only 13.8%, with Dongan Power and its affiliates accounting for 8.7% of the market. Both the diesel and gasoline engine sectors in China show signs of monopolistic competition among independent engine manufacturers. Compared to the global landscape, where independent engine companies are rare and often affiliated with large passenger vehicle groups, China’s independent engine firms have managed to carve out a substantial market position, especially in the gasoline engine sector. Internationally, few independent gasoline engine companies exist, as major automakers typically develop their own engines to support large-scale production. This strategy allows for faster integration of new vehicle models and better control over profit margins. However, in China, where many vehicle manufacturers are still in the early development stage, larger engine R&D and production are often outsourced. This creates a niche for independent gasoline engine companies. We expect this trend to continue, and while these companies currently enjoy some market space, their share in the gasoline engine sector is likely to gradually decline in the future.

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