Potash: Global surplus falls Large gap between supply and demand in China

In 2007, the global supply of potash fertilizer reached 38.1 million tons, an increase of 2.1% from 2006; the demand was 31.5 million tons, an increase of 3.6% from 2006; the surplus in 2007 was 6.6 million tons, which was lower than the 6.9 million tons in 2006. In 2007, global potash fertilizer production capacity increased by 600,000 tons to 40.4 million tons. In 2006, the global trade volume will reach 29.52 million tons, and it is expected to be 31.58 million tons in 2007, an increase of 7% over 2006. The United States, China, India, Brazil and other countries have strong import demand.
Due to the decline of Russian production capacity, the global supply capacity has declined. Considering the globally uneven supply distribution, the global potash fertilizer market was tense in 2007.
From 2006 to 2009, global production capacity increased at an average rate of 1 million tons per year and is expected to increase from 39.8 million tons in 2006 to 42.78 million tons in 2010. The additional increase of nearly 3 million tons will come mainly from North America, Russia and China. Expansion of production, including Russia, Canada, Argentina and Jordan will increase production capacity of 2.76 million tons. By 2010, Argentina will add 1.2 million tons of new production capacity. It is estimated that by 2010, the global potash fertilizer supply will reach 41.4 million tons.
According to the IFA Agriculture Committee's forecast, global potash fertilizer consumption will continue to increase in the next few years, and the demand will increase from 30.4 million tons in 2006 to 35.25 million tons in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 3.1%; non-fertilizer application consumption is expected to increase. Based on nearly 3.1 million tons in 2006, it will increase at a rate of 1% each year.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the global potash fertilizer surplus will gradually decline in 2009, from 6.1 million tons in 2006 to 5.2 million tons in 2009.

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