The “2007 International Energy Outlook†report issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in late May predicts that since international crude oil prices will continue to rise in the long run, coal will be the world’s fastest growing consumer of energy from 2004 to 2030, with an average annual increase. The rate will reach 2.2%; the average annual growth rate of natural gas consumption will be 1.9%.
The report stated that during the forecast period from 2004 to 2030, the global coal demand will increase from 4.76 billion tons in 2004 to 8.27 billion tons in 2030. The share of coal in the global energy consumption structure will increase from 26% in 2004 to 28% in 2030. Rising energy demand will also boost the price of natural gas, which will make coal more competitive in cost, especially in the electricity sector.
According to the report, the global natural gas consumption in 2004 will be 2.8 trillion cubic meters, which will increase to 3.6 trillion cubic meters in 2015 and reach 4.6 trillion cubic meters in 2030. The rise in world crude oil prices after 2015 will continue to increase the demand for natural gas in the industrial and power sectors. The industrial sector will continue to be the largest consumer of natural gas in the world and is expected to account for 43% of total consumption by 2030.
In addition, during this forecast period, the global net power generation will increase by 85%, from 164,000 kWh in 2004 to 223,000 kWh in 2015, and to 303,000 kWh in 2030. Before 2030, coal and natural gas will continue to be the most important fuel for power generation and will account for 80% of the total increase in global power generation during this period.
The report also pointed out that due to the higher prices of fossil fuels, especially natural gas, nuclear power generation will increase from 26,000 kWh in 2004 to 36,000 kWh in 2030. It is expected that nuclear energy capacity will increase from 368 million kilowatts in 2004 to 481 million kilowatts in 2030.
According to forecasts, from 2004 to 2030, hydropower and Other renewable energy sources will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9%. The share of renewable energy in the world’s energy consumption is expected to increase from 7% in 2004 to 8% in 2030.
The report stated that during the forecast period from 2004 to 2030, the global coal demand will increase from 4.76 billion tons in 2004 to 8.27 billion tons in 2030. The share of coal in the global energy consumption structure will increase from 26% in 2004 to 28% in 2030. Rising energy demand will also boost the price of natural gas, which will make coal more competitive in cost, especially in the electricity sector.
According to the report, the global natural gas consumption in 2004 will be 2.8 trillion cubic meters, which will increase to 3.6 trillion cubic meters in 2015 and reach 4.6 trillion cubic meters in 2030. The rise in world crude oil prices after 2015 will continue to increase the demand for natural gas in the industrial and power sectors. The industrial sector will continue to be the largest consumer of natural gas in the world and is expected to account for 43% of total consumption by 2030.
In addition, during this forecast period, the global net power generation will increase by 85%, from 164,000 kWh in 2004 to 223,000 kWh in 2015, and to 303,000 kWh in 2030. Before 2030, coal and natural gas will continue to be the most important fuel for power generation and will account for 80% of the total increase in global power generation during this period.
The report also pointed out that due to the higher prices of fossil fuels, especially natural gas, nuclear power generation will increase from 26,000 kWh in 2004 to 36,000 kWh in 2030. It is expected that nuclear energy capacity will increase from 368 million kilowatts in 2004 to 481 million kilowatts in 2030.
According to forecasts, from 2004 to 2030, hydropower and Other renewable energy sources will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9%. The share of renewable energy in the world’s energy consumption is expected to increase from 7% in 2004 to 8% in 2030.
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