Next year's car production and sales will continue to grow at a faster rate. The inevitable fall in prices is inevitable. 08:38, December 26, 2003 Beijing entertainment newsletter reporter Zhang Jie/Photography will maintain rapid growth According to the latest statistics from China Automobile Industry Association, the first 11 months of this year A total of 400.53 million automobiles were produced nationwide, an increase of 35.04% year-on-year; a total of 3.9375 million automobiles were sold, an increase of 31.25% year-on-year. From the data analysis, the growth rate of automobile production and sales in 2003 will exceed the growth rate of 20%-25% predicted by many experts and research institutions at the beginning of the year. Zhang Xueying, deputy director of the forecasting department of the State Information Center, said in an interview that the auto industry will continue to grow rapidly next year, and it is not a big problem that the auto output will exceed 5 million vehicles. Zhang Xueying said that from the perspective of long-term market demand, the auto industry has entered a relatively stable and long-term growth path with reference to the previous market operation rules for consumer durables such as home appliances. This large tone will not change next year. He said that this tone is related to China's economic trend. At present, there has been a new high in domestic economic growth and activity. Since the second half of this year, the domestic economy has begun to bottom out, entering a new round of boom space, and the economic growth next year will remain at more than 8%. Unlike the previous government-led growth, the role of the market in the new round of economic growth is significantly increasing. The quality and efficiency of economic growth are much higher than before. This will inevitably bring about the increase in corporate profits and personal income. There is no reason to be pessimistic about this development. The growth rate may fall back to about 20%. Jia Xinguang, chief analyst of the Beijing Automotive Industry Research Institute, predicts that automobile growth will slow down significantly next year, with an overall growth rate of around 20%, of which saloons will grow by 50% and passengers and trucks will increase by 10%. The total output is expected to exceed 5 million, of which car production will increase from 1.9 million this year to 2.4-2.7 million. Guo Yan, head of the Beijing Asian Games Village Automotive Trading Market Information Department, and Jia Xinguang share the same view. Zhang Xueying analyzes that although the automobile industry as a whole still maintains rapid growth next year, due to the large number of bases this year, in addition, hard-environment constraints have begun to appear in areas where automobile consumption has increased rapidly, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The traffic jams and the scarcity of parking spaces are expected to slow down next year, from 30% this year to about 20%. Experts pointed out that apart from traffic congestion, there are other restrictive factors for the slowdown in growth rate next year. The latest statistics show that in the first 11 months, the production and sales of trucks only increased by 8.43% and 8.44% year-on-year; the production and sales of passenger cars also increased by only 13.83% and 14.14% respectively. The trend of oil price increases is obvious. At present, gasoline prices have risen by about 0.15 yuan per liter. Although the increase is not significant, the possibility of a drop in the next year is very small. The price of steel products also continues to rise, which will directly lead to the increase in the prices of automotive raw materials and accessories. The price of coke rises. The tight supply of electricity has an indirect impact on the automotive industry. On the one hand, there are pressures on the upstream and downstream industries to increase prices; on the other hand, due to fierce competition, car prices are under constant pressure to reduce prices. Under the influence of the two forces, it will inevitably have a negative impact on automobile production. In addition, auto import licenses and quotas will be completely cancelled in 2005, and tariffs will continue to be lowered. This will not only increase the competitive pressure of imported cars on domestic cars, but also cause serious cash holdings to occur in the second half of next year. Yield shrinks. In general, the overall price of cars is low. From the beginning of 2003 to the end of the year, the car price cuts did not stop. SAIC POLO, Passat, NAC Palio, Sienna, Tianqi Xiali, Vios, Changan Alto series, Chery Fengyun series, Hafei Lubao, Shenlong Picasso and other dozens of models have cut prices, price shocks almost affect all domestic cars factory. What are the new changes in car prices in 2004? According to industry analysts, due to consumers’ expectations for tariff cuts in 2005, the pressure on auto prices will further increase. At the same time, if more than 50 new models have not yet stabilized the market this year, there will be nearly 50 next year. The new models will have to be listed, competition will become more intense, and the overall price of cars will continue to fall. For imported cars, next year will be a test. Some experts pointed out that due to the cancellation of import vehicle licenses and quota restrictions in 2005, import car dealers can only seek to obtain full-year quotas in the first half of next year, and take delivery as soon as possible as soon as possible. Therefore, experts predict that imported cars will face unprecedented serious currency purchases in the second half of next year, and the price of cars will also fall. The profit rate of autos will decline, and domestic-funded enterprises will face challenges. The profits of developed countries in their own countries will generally be about 5%, but in China, they will be as high as 30% or more. The fundamental reason is that competition is not sufficient. Su Hui, general manager of the Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Exchange Market, pointed out that there has been a boom in auto investment and the expansion of multinational auto groups in China, and the competition will gradually increase.
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