In the first half of the year, driven by rapid economic growth, the output of major energy products such as electricity, coal, and refined oil products also grew rapidly. In the first half of this year, the output of electricity generated was 1,9706 billion kwh, which represented a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and the amount of processed crude oil was 20,585.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. Although the growth rate of energy production in the first half of the year is relatively fast, it is also necessary to see that in the second quarter, due to the fall in economic growth, the growth in the production and demand of major energy products such as electricity and coal has declined from the first quarter.
Since industrial electricity consumption exceeds 70% of total electricity consumption in the society, and industrial coal consumption exceeds 95% of all coal consumption, diesel consumption is mainly related to the flow of industrial products and raw materials. Therefore, industrial fluctuations are The fluctuation of energy demand has an important impact. Since April, China’s industrial production has shown signs of slowing down, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size has dropped to 13.7% in June. Comprehensive analysis of the main driving factors affecting industrial production, and taking into account the impact of the base, it is expected that the growth rate of industrial production will further decline in the second half of the year. The factors that cause the further decline of the growth rate of industrial production mainly come from two aspects: First, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets will further decline, which will increase downward pressure on the growth rate of industrial production. Due to the decrease in the growth of fiscal expenditure this year, the growth rate of government investment projects has started to decline, and this trend will continue in the second half of the year. Affected by real estate control policies, the growth rate of real estate sales began to decline rapidly since May. From the law of real estate market fluctuations, real estate investment growth will begin to decline after sales declines in March-June. Based on this, real estate development investment in the fourth quarter will increase. As the real estate investment accounts for more than 20% of urban fixed asset investment, the decline in real estate investment growth will further increase downward pressure on investment growth, and further increase the demand for high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and building materials. The fall back. Second, export growth will drop significantly. About 95% of China's export commodities are industrial manufactured goods, and fluctuations in exports will cause fluctuations in industrial production. Although the cumulative growth of China’s exports in the first half of the year reached 35.2%, it must be noted that the high growth of exports in the first half of the year was mainly related to the low base of the same period of last year and the “restocking†demand of major economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan. The substantive recovery of consumption and investment in the economy is not yet obvious, and some countries such as Greece have to make proper fiscal austerity in order to deal with the sovereign debt crisis. Overall, there is no basis for continued rapid growth in exports in the second half of the year, and it is expected that exports will increase after August. The speed will obviously drop, and the production growth of the export sector will also decline.
In the second half of the year, as industrial growth further falls, the growth in energy demand will also decline quarter by quarter. Taking into account the relatively high base in the second half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter, real estate investment growth and export growth in the fourth quarter of this year are likely to fall at the same time. Affected by this, the major energy sources such as coal, electricity and refined oil in the fourth quarter will be affected. Product demand growth will be significantly lower than the first half and third quarter. Based on the quarter-on-quarter decline in energy demand growth in the second half of the year, it is expected that the overall energy supply and demand situation will be relatively loose in the second half of the year.
It is necessary to pay attention that the fluctuation of energy supply and demand is greatly affected by climate change factors. When there are extreme climate changes such as persistent high temperatures or ice and snow, the energy demand will increase rapidly in the short term; and the frozen rain and snow disasters will be transported to coal. Bring a certain impact, extreme drought will affect the hydropower generation, therefore, in the case of relatively abundant energy supply capacity, we must also pay attention to the impact of extreme climate change and other factors on the energy market. In the second half of the year, during the summer and winter peaks, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the possible short-term impact of extreme climate change on the energy market.
Since industrial electricity consumption exceeds 70% of total electricity consumption in the society, and industrial coal consumption exceeds 95% of all coal consumption, diesel consumption is mainly related to the flow of industrial products and raw materials. Therefore, industrial fluctuations are The fluctuation of energy demand has an important impact. Since April, China’s industrial production has shown signs of slowing down, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size has dropped to 13.7% in June. Comprehensive analysis of the main driving factors affecting industrial production, and taking into account the impact of the base, it is expected that the growth rate of industrial production will further decline in the second half of the year. The factors that cause the further decline of the growth rate of industrial production mainly come from two aspects: First, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets will further decline, which will increase downward pressure on the growth rate of industrial production. Due to the decrease in the growth of fiscal expenditure this year, the growth rate of government investment projects has started to decline, and this trend will continue in the second half of the year. Affected by real estate control policies, the growth rate of real estate sales began to decline rapidly since May. From the law of real estate market fluctuations, real estate investment growth will begin to decline after sales declines in March-June. Based on this, real estate development investment in the fourth quarter will increase. As the real estate investment accounts for more than 20% of urban fixed asset investment, the decline in real estate investment growth will further increase downward pressure on investment growth, and further increase the demand for high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and building materials. The fall back. Second, export growth will drop significantly. About 95% of China's export commodities are industrial manufactured goods, and fluctuations in exports will cause fluctuations in industrial production. Although the cumulative growth of China’s exports in the first half of the year reached 35.2%, it must be noted that the high growth of exports in the first half of the year was mainly related to the low base of the same period of last year and the “restocking†demand of major economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan. The substantive recovery of consumption and investment in the economy is not yet obvious, and some countries such as Greece have to make proper fiscal austerity in order to deal with the sovereign debt crisis. Overall, there is no basis for continued rapid growth in exports in the second half of the year, and it is expected that exports will increase after August. The speed will obviously drop, and the production growth of the export sector will also decline.
In the second half of the year, as industrial growth further falls, the growth in energy demand will also decline quarter by quarter. Taking into account the relatively high base in the second half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter, real estate investment growth and export growth in the fourth quarter of this year are likely to fall at the same time. Affected by this, the major energy sources such as coal, electricity and refined oil in the fourth quarter will be affected. Product demand growth will be significantly lower than the first half and third quarter. Based on the quarter-on-quarter decline in energy demand growth in the second half of the year, it is expected that the overall energy supply and demand situation will be relatively loose in the second half of the year.
It is necessary to pay attention that the fluctuation of energy supply and demand is greatly affected by climate change factors. When there are extreme climate changes such as persistent high temperatures or ice and snow, the energy demand will increase rapidly in the short term; and the frozen rain and snow disasters will be transported to coal. Bring a certain impact, extreme drought will affect the hydropower generation, therefore, in the case of relatively abundant energy supply capacity, we must also pay attention to the impact of extreme climate change and other factors on the energy market. In the second half of the year, during the summer and winter peaks, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the possible short-term impact of extreme climate change on the energy market.
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The rated current characterizes the maximum output current capability of the generator at rated speed to ensure the output voltage. The industry standard stipulates that the rated speed of the automobile generator is 6000r / min, and the output capacity of the generator is divided into series grade: 35A, 55A, 75A, 90A, 105A, 120A and so on.
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